Journals
  Publication Years
  Keywords
Search within results Open Search
Please wait a minute...
For Selected: Toggle Thumbnails
EffectAnalysis on Interpretation ofExtrem e Temperature by ECMW F Products in Q ingyang
TUN Ai-Min, LU E-Ai, LI Xiang-Ke, ZHANG Hong-Fen, XU  Yan
J4    2009, 27 (3): 288-293.  
Abstract1487)      PDF(pc) (796KB)(2187)       Save

The predictionmodel for the highestand lowest temperature is established by the CMSVM regressionmethod based on ECMWF data and the extreme temperature observations from 8 automaticweather stations inQingyang ofGansu Province from 2003 to2007.The effect test in 2008 operation forecast indicated that the rate ofaverage forecastaccuracy is64% and 71% for the highestand lowest temperature in 5 days, which has the good instruction for the real-timeweather service. The forecast accuracy rate of the highest and lowest temperature decreased with the forecast time increase, and the accuracy rate for the lowest temperature is higher than thatof the highest temperature. The forecast effect for the lowest temperature is better in spring and summer than that in autume and winter, but it is opposite for the highest temperature. The absolute and the average forecasterrors for the highestand lowest temperature are added with the forecast time increase, and the absolute forecasterror for the highest temperature is bigger than thatof the lowestbut the average error is close and positive. The forecast effect test in Septemper of 2008 indicated that the forecast values presented the similar trend to real time observations for the highest and lowest temperature.

Reference | Related Articles | Metrics
The Application of Support Vector Machine Method in Hail Forecast
TUN Ai-Min, GUO Jiang-Yong, ZHANG Hong-Fen, LU E-Ai
J4    2005, 23 (4): 41-45.  
Abstract1300)      PDF(pc) (269KB)(1567)       Save

The support vector machine(SVM) is a new statistical study theory method which developed in recent years,  by using this method in
hail in the method is this paper',  We analyzed  the classific;ation prediction of hail weather based on summarizing the circulation(harac;teristic;s of hail in east region of Cansu provinc;e} and(ompared with traditional forecast under different weather types.It is confirmed that SVM method is not need to classify weather types and the effect of forecast model being established is better on many samples. This has provided new method and idea for hasin stations nn weather forecast.

Reference | Related Articles | Metrics